Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Speaking of building the movement...

Packed House for Grand Opening of Schiff Campaign HQ

"The campaign has also earned momentum from the latest Rasmussen Poll, which has Peter Schiff beating Chris Dodd in a head-to-head matchup."

Poll: Rand Paul has Big Lead in Kentucky GOP Senate Primary

"The numbers: Rand Paul 44%, Secretary of State Trey Grayson 25%."

Poll: GOP Favored to Hold Kentucky Senate Seat

"Paul, a conservative activist and son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), leads state Attorney General Jack Conway and Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo by identical margins of 42%-36%."

Anti-War Activist Mounts GOP Campaign for Congress

"He’s a candidate for Congress in New Mexico’s 3rd district, looking like the Republican front-runner just one short year after he crashed the convention."
"Depending on who’s analyzing the race, New Mexico’s third district is either an ideal or a poorly chosen battlefield for a candidate like Kokesh."

I think that Rand has the best chance, followed by Schiff, followed by Kokesh. The problem for Schiff is getting out of a crowded primary field. Rob Simmons is a former Republican Congressman, and Linda McMahon is very rich. At that point, it will be a matter of whether the bailouts are still fresh enough in people's minds, and how the healthcare issue plays out. Kokesh is probably my favorite of these guys, but he's also the most radical. I predict he will have no problem mobilizing a campaign, but might have trouble getting the average New Mexican to the polls.

If libertarian-leaning candidates manage to be successful in the next election cycle, expect things to get exciting moving into Obama's reelection campaign. Obama is on the clock--midterm elections tend to go against the incumbent party, and Obama made a lot of very big promises. Failure to deliver could lead to disappointment for him at the polls.

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